- Deep Value Signals
- Posts
- Signals #1 — This Week in Deep Value: Oil, Land, Hotels, and Tugboats
Signals #1 — This Week in Deep Value: Oil, Land, Hotels, and Tugboats
High dividends. Hidden assets. Asymmetric upside. This is Issue #1.
Market: South Africa — thermal coal
Market Cap: ~$950M
EV: ~$370M
EV/EBITDA: ~0.7x
P/E: ~2.6x
Dividend Yield: ~18% (variable)
South African coal producer with high cash generation and near-zero net debt. Despite commodity volatility, Thungela has returned 100%+ of market cap in dividends and buybacks since its 2021 demerger. The market is pricing it like a terminal value trap, but the balance sheet and cost structure say otherwise.
💡 Signals Take: One of the cheapest resource producers globally. Coal cycle risk is real, but so is the cash. For disciplined capital allocators, this is deep value 101.
📚 Source: Norway Stocks Substack (Apr 2025)
Market: Norway — oil & gas
Market Cap: ~$21.5B
EV: ~$31.5B
EV/EBITDA: ~3.5x
P/E: ~7.7x
Dividend Yield: ~9%
Aker BP is a highly efficient oil producer operating exclusively on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. Backed by Aker Group and BP, it runs lean with low breakevens and solid reserves. It's using steady cash flow to pay a high dividend and fund growth via tax-incentivized CapEx.
💡 Signals Take: Mid-cap oil that pays you well to wait. Attractive total return profile with lower political risk than peers.
📚 Source: Protean Funds Letter (Feb 2025)
Market: U.S. — citrus and land
Market Cap: ~$170M
EV: ~$235M
EV/EBITDA: ~9.3x
P/E: — (earnings volatile)
Dividend Yield: ~1.5%
Owns 74,000+ acres of Florida land, much of it valuable for agriculture or future development. The citrus business is struggling (greening disease, hurricane impact), but the land is worth more than the entire enterprise value. Major insiders continue to buy. Real estate monetization could be a key catalyst.
💡 Signals Take: Land-rich balance sheet in plain sight. Citrus is a mess, but the dirt is forever.
📚 Source: Rock & Turner Investing (Apr 2025)
Market: Italy — specialty logistics
Market Cap: ~€20M
EV: ~€15M
EV/EBITDA: ~2.5x
P/E: ~4.6x
Dividend Yield: ~5%
Tiny Italian transport firm focused on pharmaceutical and critical delivery. Boasts high return on capital and steady margins, with recurring contracts and low debt. Insider ownership is strong. Thin float and illiquidity are a given at this size.
💡 Signals Take: Microcap with niche moat, sticky customers, and real profitability. You won’t find it in a screener—but the numbers speak for themselves.
📚 Source: Quality Compounders (Apr 2025)
Market: West Africa — oil
Market Cap: ~$90M
EV: ~$55M
EV/EBITDA: ~0.9x
P/E: ~3.0x
Dividend Yield: ~6.3% (Proposed NOK 2.2 per share with ex-date May 23, 2025)
PetroNor is an overlooked E&P with profitable offshore assets in Congo and Guinea-Bissau. Trades below net cash with a huge arbitration win against Senegal on the table. Low-cost barrels, expanding production, and near-zero debt make this a speculative—but asymmetric—play.
💡 Signals Take: African oil microcap with cash, catalysts, and cap discipline. Thin volume, but fat upside.
📚 Source: Norway Stocks Substack (Mar 2025)
Market: Global — litigation finance
Market Cap: ~$3.3B
EV: ~$5.1B
EV/EBITDA: ~7.5x
P/E: ~8.4x
Dividend Yield: None
A pioneer in litigation finance, Burford funds corporate lawsuits in exchange for a share of outcomes. Cases are uncorrelated with the broader economy, and concluded investments have earned an average 87% ROI. Its $16B Argentina judgment adds optionality, while third-party capital management smooths earnings.
💡 Signals Take: The “Berkshire of lawsuits.” Unloved, complex, and wildly asymmetric. One of the best idiosyncratic bets in the market.
📚 Source: Brian Coughlin Substack (May 2025)
Market: Japan — industrial equipment
Market Cap: ¥11.5B (~$74M)
EV: ~¥8.2B
EV/EBITDA: ~2.9x
P/E: ~7x
Dividend Yield: ~4.2%
A net-net industrial selling pumps, fans, and blowers for waterworks and infrastructure. 70% of revenue comes from Japanese government and utility contracts. Long-term contracts + growing overseas desalination orders = stable base with upside. Recently raised dividend and bought back 2.5% of shares.
💡 Signals Take: Boring, high-quality machinery maker with a macro tailwind in aging infrastructure. Reliable, cheap, and shareholder-friendly.
📚 Source: Net-Net Hunter Japan (May 2025)
Market: Hong Kong — real estate holding
Market Cap: ~HKD 300M
EV: ~HKD 1B
EV/EBITDA: ~2.0x
P/E: ~2x
Dividend Yield: None
Through its holding in Shunho Property and Magnificent Hotel Investments, SHH owns undervalued hotels and office assets in Hong Kong and London. Estimated to trade at ~5% of NAV. Complex ownership structure and governance risk are real—but so is the discount.
💡 Signals Take: A Hong Kong deep value maze. Under 10% of NAV, with London real estate alone covering all debt. Not for the faint of heart.
📚 Source: Bluegoldvalue Substack (Mar 2025)
Market: Global — marine towage
Market Cap: ~$1.04B (USD)
EV: ~$1.75B
EV/EBITDA: ~6.8x
P/E: ~12x (2025E)
Dividend Yield: TBD
Spun out from Maersk, Svitzer runs the world’s largest tugboat fleet with contracts in 143 ports. Mission-critical, high-barrier service that powers global trade. New Panama contract + fleet modernization could boost ROIC. The only public towage pure-play.
💡 Signals Take: Unsexy infrastructure with pricing power and scale. Hidden compounder potential. Looks boring — smells like money.
📚 Source: Tactile Fund LP Substack (Mar 2025)
Market: Global — cybersecurity & cloud
Market Cap: ~$15.5B
EV: ~$16.9B
EV/EBITDA: ~10.2x
P/E: ~11.5x (forward)
Dividend Yield: None
Known for its legacy CDN business, Akamai is now 50% cybersecurity and 16% cloud services — both growing fast. With multiple acquisitions (Guardicore, Linode, Neosec), it’s transforming into a full-stack edge cloud security provider. Revenue growth is modest now but shifting upward.
💡 Signals Take: Not your grandfather’s CDN. This is a cybersecurity turnaround hiding inside a sleepy brand. Valuation doesn’t reflect the pivot.
📚 Source: Quality Stocks Substack (May 2025)