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- Signals #13 — France, fossil fuels and future proofing
Signals #13 — France, fossil fuels and future proofing
This issue looks at seventeen ideas across AI, energy, infrastructure, logistics, diagnostics and old world chemicals. They are grouped by category so you can scan quickly for growth, value, special situations, or income. As always, this is a curated map of other investors’ work, not a set of buy or sell calls.
Growth
Category (author): growth | Sector: Broadline Retail | Region: China / Global
Overview
Alibaba is framed as a way to play both Chinese e commerce recovery and the country’s AI buildout. The pitch leans on Double 11 showing its best growth in four years and AI infused search and recommendations improving click through rates. Cloud Intelligence is the other pillar, with AI workloads driving triple digit growth in AI products and Alibaba Cloud holding a leading share in China’s AI cloud market.
Financial Metrics
Market cap: about 2.5 trillion USD
P/E: 18.39
EV / EBITDA: 11.89
EV / Sales: 2.45
Dividend yield: 0.66 percent
Capex plan: RMB 380 billion over three years
Highlights
Double 11 delivering the best growth rate in four years and strong order activity on Taobao Flash Purchase.
Cloud revenue up 26 percent, AI related products growing triple digits for eight straight quarters.
Qwen models leading many open source benchmarks, with 600 million downloads and 170 thousand derivative models.
Strong AI ecosystem across agents and consumer apps, plus “one cloud multi chip” positioning for training and inference work.
Risks
China macro and regulatory risk, including ongoing geopolitical discount versus US hyperscalers.
Heavy capex commitments in a global AI arms race, with US firms outspending Chinese peers by a wide margin.
Competitive pressure in AI apps from Doubao, DeepSeek and other local players.
Conclusion
The setup is a classic “good business, low multiple, hated jurisdiction” situation. If AI and core commerce keep compounding while the cloud narrative improves, there is room for both earnings growth and multiple repair, but it will live under a China risk overhang.
Source
AI Proem, 19 Nov 2025, “Will it be a Home Run for Alibaba?”
Category (author): growth | Sector: Energy Equipment and Services | Region: Global
Overview
Baker Hughes is pitched as an energy technology platform, not just an oilfield services name. The thesis hinges on its strong position in LNG turbomachinery and growing exposure to cleaner power, hydrogen and emissions abatement through its Industrial & Energy Technology segment.
Financial Metrics
Market cap: 47.4 billion USD
P/E: 16.55
EV / EBITDA: 9.14
EV / Sales: 1.84
Dividend yield: 1.91 percent
Highlights
Two segment model: IET for energy transition infrastructure and OFSE for traditional oilfield operations.
Well placed for global LNG growth via its turbomachinery franchise.
Margin trajectory improving with EBITDA margins aimed at high teens in 2025 and 20 percent plus longer term.
Chart Industries deal enhances its footprint in high growth gas infrastructure and related services.
Risks
Still tied to hydrocarbon capex cycles even with transition exposure.
Integration and execution risk around acquisitions.
Political and regulatory risk around gas and infrastructure projects worldwide.
Conclusion
This is a way to play both LNG and decarbonization infrastructure in one name. If the margin plan and backlog convert as expected, the current valuation leaves room for multiple expansion as the mix tilts toward higher margin IET.
Source
Aristotle Atlantic Core Equity Strategy, 16 Oct 2025
Category (author): growth | Sector: Health Care Providers and Services | Region: MENA / Africa
Overview
IDHC is a multi country diagnostics chain in Egypt, Nigeria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Sudan. The author frames it as a long runway growth story that still trades far below its historic share price range despite strong volume and profit growth.
Financial Metrics
Market cap: 18.9 billion USD (as quoted in the feed)
P/E: 17.29
EV / EBITDA: 8.75
EV / Sales: 2.84
Dividend yield: 2.46 percent
Price target: 2.66 USD, roughly 291 percent implied upside from 0.69
Highlights
9M25 profit up 33 percent, with profits doubling if you strip out FX effects.
Patient numbers 20 percent above 2019 levels and test volumes up 40 percent to 42 million.
Strong radiology growth in Egypt and EBITDA in Nigeria up four times.
Operates across a 440 million population base but only serves about 9 million patients a year, implying low single digit market penetration.
Risks
Heavy FX and macro risk, especially in Egypt where the pound has lost more than 70 percent of its value since 2019.
Double digit inflation and geopolitical volatility in several operating countries.
Mix risk between high margin walk in customers and lower margin contract customers.
Conclusion
IDHC combines real operating momentum with a bruised share price and heavy macro baggage. If they can keep growing volumes and radiology while FX stabilizes even modestly, there is leverage in both earnings and sentiment.
Source
The Oak Bloke, 18 Nov 2025, “IDHC 3Q25 results”
Value
Category (author): value | Sector: Air Freight and Logistics | Niche: Luxury logistics
Overview
Ferrari Group is a specialty logistics firm for hard luxury goods, handling jewelry and watches for more than 100 high end clients such as Chanel, Tiffany, Rolex and LVMH. It offers a fully integrated service from armored transport to customs and event handling.
Financial Metrics
Market cap: 744.1 million EUR
P/E: 15.55
EV / EBITDA: 9.26
EV / Sales: 1.85
Dividend yield: 3.31 percent
Net cash: more than 100 million EUR, no debt
Highlights
One stop shop for luxury brands with ERP integrations and customs expertise across many jurisdictions.
100 percent customer retention in 2023 with stable multiyear contracts.
Family owns about 70 percent of the company, aligning incentives and keeping institutional ownership low.
Roughly 8 percent free cash flow yield versus about 3.6 percent for the S&P 500.
Risks
High customer concentration in luxury, which is cyclical and sentiment driven.
Low liquidity and high insider ownership limit the investor base.
Any service failure or security incident would be highly damaging to trust.
Conclusion
This is a niche, asset light logistics compounder tied to the resilience of top tier luxury brands. If the moat around compliance, customs and service execution holds, investors are being paid a reasonable yield to wait for steady compounding.
Source
The Dutch Investors, 19 Nov 2025, “We’re buying Ferrari Group”
Category (author): value | Sector: Ground Transportation / Infrastructure
Overview
FTAI Infrastructure is pitched as a complex, catalyst rich infrastructure roll up with core rail assets plus energy terminals. The big swing is the Wheeling & Lake Erie acquisition and the plan to build a “RailCo” with meaningful EBITDA and eventual asset sales.
Financial Metrics
Market cap: 481.5 million USD
P/E: negative 1.77
EV / EBITDA: 31.34
EV / Sales: 11.69
Dividend yield: 2.90 percent
Price target: 15 USD, about 273 percent implied upside from 5.91
Highlights
RailCo guided to 200 million USD normalized EBITDA, implying more than 10 USD per share value at a 12x multiple.
Repauno terminal with permits for Phase 3 caverns and potential EBITDA above 190 million USD at full buildout.
Long Ridge site with data center optionality and potential 165 million USD EBITDA at scale.
CEO and Chairman early exercising options to increase exposure at current prices.
Risks
High leverage and complex capital structure, including preferred equity and warrants.
Execution risk on multiple simultaneous asset ramps and potential sales.
Asset values are sensitive to capital markets, commodity flows and data center demand.
Conclusion
FIP is not a sleepy yield vehicle. It is a leveraged, multi asset special situation in value clothing. If management can pull off the plan for RailCo, Repauno and Long Ridge, the upside is significant, but the path will be volatile.
Source
Tourlite Capital Management, 21 Oct 2025
Category (author): value | Sector: Chemicals | Style: asset backed deep value
Overview
AdvanSix is a specialty chemicals manufacturer trading close to half of tangible book and well below estimated replacement cost of its plants. Earnings are at a cyclical trough after price declines, plant issues and weak nylon demand.
Financial Metrics
Market cap: 387.4 million USD
P/E: 7.51
EV / EBITDA: 4.14
EV / Sales: 0.52
Dividend yield: 4.44 percent
Target price: 46 USD, about 220 percent upside from 14.61
Tangible book multiple: 0.48x
Highlights
Owns five integrated production sites with 7.55 million square feet carried at 46 USD per square foot, versus estimated replacement cost of 150 to 400 USD.
Peak EBIT around 200 million USD in 2021 to 2022 versus about 20 million USD today.
Heavy capex in 2024 is expected to normalize toward depreciation, giving a free cash flow tailwind.
Strategic advisory fees suggest active review of M&A or a possible sale.
Risks
End markets for nylon and intermediates may stay weak longer than expected.
Operational incidents and outages have already hurt results.
A buyer willing to pay historic transaction multiples is not guaranteed.
Conclusion
ASIX is a classic “old economy” asset with a large gap between replacement value and quoted equity. If margins mean revert and capex normalizes, there is a lot of torque to earnings and to a possible takeout.
Source
Dismissed & Asset Backed, 19 Nov 2025
Category (author): value | Sector: Specialized REITs | Niche: Self storage
Overview
Big Yellow is the UK leader in self storage and is being pitched as a disciplined operator that can grow rents and dividends despite softer demand. The story leans on operational efficiency, a visible development pipeline and a modest discount to asset value.
Financial Metrics
Market cap: 2.1 billion GBP
P/E: 16.52
EV / EBITDA: 19.53
EV / Sales: 12.60
Dividend yield: 4.34 percent
Net debt: 3.3x EBITDA, 14 percent loan to value
Highlights
Store revenue up 2 percent year over year, driven by 4 percent rent increases despite occupancy dipping to 78.2 percent.
Store EBITDA up 5 percent through cost control and energy savings from solar and automation.
Development pipeline of 13 active sites plus one replacement, representing about 16 percent of current capacity and 36 million GBP of NOI at stabilization.
Interim dividend up 5 percent with a low leverage profile.
Risks
Occupancy could drift lower if demand softens further.
UK macro and rate environment will influence valuations and financing costs.
Competition in regional markets if others ramp self storage capacity.
Conclusion
This looks like a slow but steady storage compounder at a small discount to net asset value. Investors mainly get paid through rent growth, development returns and a covered dividend, with optionality on any strategic interest.
Source
Lux Opes Research, 18 Nov 2025
Category (author): value | Sector: Professional Services | Niche: HR outsourcing
Overview
Insperity is a long term HR outsourcing compounder trading at a steep discount to its historic multiples because of temporary cost headwinds and a software transition. The thesis is that normalized earnings power is far above current reported numbers.
Financial Metrics
Market cap: about 1.2 billion USD
P/E: 71.44 on depressed earnings, about 10x on the author’s normalized view
EV / EBITDA: 16.51
EV / Sales: 0.18
Dividend yield: 7.51 percent
Pitch price: 52 USD, price target 102.40 USD (about 223 percent upside)
Highlights
Twenty year record of about 12 percent annual sales growth and 21 percent EPS growth.
Very high returns on capital, with average tangible ROE at 157 percent and ROIC around 42 percent.
Temporary drag from 150 million USD in Workday implementation costs and elevated health benefit costs, both expected to normalize by 2026 to 2027.
Exclusive Workday partnership should improve retention and allow NSP to serve larger clients.
Risks
Competition from tech first players like Rippling that can undercut on software quality.
Benefit cost volatility can compress margins.
Regulatory risk around co employer status and employment laws.
Conclusion
NSP is an example of a high quality compounder that looks optically expensive on today’s earnings but cheap on a normalized basis. If Workday benefits show up and benefit inflation eases, the earnings power and multiple can both improve.
Source
Supernova, Value Investors Club 16 Sep 2025
Category (author): value | Sector: Renewable Power | Region: Latin America
Overview
Polaris is a small renewable IPP with geothermal and solar assets in Latin America, trading at a mid single digit free cash flow multiple with a solid dividend. The overhang is concentration in a declining Nicaraguan geothermal asset.
Financial Metrics
Market cap: 179.5 million CAD
P/E: negative 15.84
EV / EBITDA: 5.24
EV / Sales: 3.83
Dividend yield: about 7.01 percent
Price target: 27 CAD, roughly 125 percent upside from 13.41
Run rate EBITDA: about 60 million USD, FCF about 35 million USD, 183 MW portfolio
Highlights
Two thirds of EBITDA from Jacinto geothermal in Nicaragua with a long track record of uninterrupted payments.
Plan to cut Jacinto’s EBITDA share to around one third by 2029 via 125 million USD capex into Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic.
New projects include Puerto Rican battery storage and Canoa 1 expansion with attractive EBITDA contribution.
Clear M&A strategy with targeted multiples for operating and shovel ready assets.
Risks
Country risk in Nicaragua and other Latin American markets.
Project execution and permitting risk in new jurisdictions.
Power price and contract renewal risk over time.
Conclusion
Polaris is a yield plus growth IPP with a stated plan to diversify away from its main risk. If management executes on growth projects and crystallizes a sale around 2028, there is room for both cash returns and a re rating.
Source
vincent975, Value Investors Club, 17 Sep 2025
Category (author): value | Sector: Energy Services | Niche: Seismic data library
Overview
Pulse Seismic owns a large, irreplaceable 2D and 3D seismic data library over the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and runs a very lean, asset light model. The pitch is a royalty like cash flow stream at a single digit free cash flow multiple.
Financial Metrics
Market cap: 140.6 million CAD
P/E: 6.34
EV / EBITDA: 3.14
EV / Sales: 2.49
Dividend yield: about 16.97 percent headline
Price target: 4.25 CAD, about 49 percent upside from 3.46
Average FCF: roughly 20 million CAD per year over five years, about 8x FCF
Highlights
Library covers about 65,000 square kilometres, acquired and built over decades.
Very low fixed cost base with about 15 employees and 6 to 8 million CAD in annual expenses.
All free cash flow returned via dividends and buybacks.
Potential one off licensing fees from large asset sales, such as a possible Petronas land divestiture.
Risks
Revenue is lumpy and tied to Canadian E&P transaction activity.
Past acquisitions have not translated into visible top line growth.
Canadian energy policy and capital flight remain structural headwinds.
Conclusion
PSD is essentially a toll collector on subsurface data. If Canadian energy deal activity picks up even modestly, the combination of dividends, buybacks and potential one off cheques can drive double digit IRRs from here.
Source
Stevedean, Value Investors Club 17 Sep 2025
Category (author): value | Sector: Oil and Gas | Basin: Permian, conventional
Overview
Riley is a small Permian E&P focused on shallower, conventional horizons rather than deep shale, using horizontal drilling and fracking to improve economics. The argument is that its cost structure and decline profile are superior to many shale peers.
Financial Metrics
Market cap: 563.9 million USD
P/E: 6.31
EV / EBITDA: 3.66
EV / Sales: 2.30
Dividend yield: about 6.23 percent
Price target: 45 USD from 27.70, around 75 percent upside
Highlights
Controls around 100 thousand acres in the Northwest Shelf of the Permian.
Wells are about 50 percent shallower and 30 percent cheaper to drill than typical shale wells.
Breakeven around 30 to 35 USD per barrel and slower declines, allowing a 40 percent capex cut with only a 4 percent production drop.
Balanced capital allocation with about half of operating cash flow reinvested and a steady dividend, leverage around 1.4x.
Risks
Commodity price risk as with any E&P.
CEO age and succession question, plus high insider ownership.
Significant portion of reserves in PUDs, which must be drilled to realize value.
Conclusion
REPX offers a relatively low multiple way to own oil with a more forgiving decline curve. If management keeps buying good acreage and oil prices stay reasonable, the combination of dividends and growth can work from this base.
Source
thecoyelf, Value Investors Club (VIC) 16 Sep 2025
Category (author): value | Sector: Electronic Equipment | Region: Thailand
Overview
SiS is Thailand’s number two IT distributor, shifting from low margin hardware into higher margin cloud, security and smart home segments. The pitch is a cheap, high return distributor with a clear mix shift tailwind.
Financial Metrics
Market cap: 6.8 billion THB
P/E: 8.09
EV / EBITDA: 6.62
EV / Sales: 0.27
Dividend yield: about 5.74 percent
Pitch price: 21.40 THB, price target 64.20 THB (about 243 percent upside)
Highlights
ROE around 20 percent with EBITDA margins about 4 percent and net margins about 2.5 percent, better than local peers.
Legacy segments (consumer, smartphones, office) have low margins and flat revenues.
High growth segments like cloud, security and smart home have high teens gross margins and have grown 20 percent annually for six years.
Gross profit from fast growth segments almost tripled from 447 million THB in 2018 to 1,199 million THB in 2024.
Risks
Execution risk in scaling value add and cloud segments.
Tech distributor margins can be squeezed in downturns.
Parent company dynamics and potential corporate actions.
Conclusion
SIS is a classic “better distributor at a low multiple” story, with a clear internal shift from box shifting to services. If management keeps tilting the mix toward higher margin segments, earnings and valuation both have room to move.
Source
perea, Value Investors Club 17 Sep 2025
Dividend
Category (author): dividend | Sector: Pharmaceuticals | Style: steady compounder
Overview
Sanofi is positioned here as a slow and steady big pharma compounder suitable for patient dividend investors. The pitch emphasizes IP backed scarcity, regulated but durable pricing power and resilient demand.
Financial Metrics
Market cap: 106.6 billion EUR
P/E: 16.78
EV / EBITDA: 9.39
EV / Sales: 2.61
Dividend yield: about 4.48 percent
Revenue: more than 45 billion EUR, FCF above 8 billion EUR
Payout ratio: about 54 percent
Highlights
3 to 5 percent revenue growth profile that supports long term compounding.
Broad portfolio across immunology, rare diseases, vaccines and oncology.
Regular dividend increases with a healthy coverage ratio.
Moderate leverage with debt to equity around 41 percent.
Risks
Pipeline and patent cliff risk, as with all large pharma.
Regulatory and pricing pressure in key markets.
Currency exposure given global operations.
Conclusion
This is not an exciting story, which is exactly the point. For investors who want a large, diversified pharma name with a solid starting yield and moderate growth, Sanofi fits that slot.
Source
French Focus Investing, 19 Nov 2025
Special Situations
Category (author): special_situation | Sector: Oil and Gas | Style: breakup / wind up
Overview
Lycos is a Canadian heavy oil microcap undergoing an effective liquidation. Investors receive a large return of capital soon, plus a stub that still owns producing assets, tax attributes and credit capacity.
Financial Metrics
Market cap: about 76.7 million CAD
P/E: negative 1.23
EV / EBITDA: 2.04
EV / Sales: 0.97
Dividend yield: none, but a large one time ROC
ROC: 0.90 CAD per share on 28 Nov 2025, about 60 percent of the current share price
Remaining production: about 1,700 bbl per day of Mannville heavy oil
Highlights
About 60 percent of production already sold for 60 million CAD, wiping out nearly all debt and long term abandonment liabilities.
Stub keeps production, minimal liabilities, a 50 million CAD credit facility and 52 million CAD in NOLs.
Comparable Mannville deals value the remaining production at 30k to 60k CAD per flowing barrel, implying stub value well above current.
Clear path to a full wind up or asset sale over 6 to 12 months.
Risks
Execution and timing risk around selling the remaining assets.
Commodity price risk over the holding period.
Liquidity and small cap risk around trading the stub.
Conclusion
This is a pure special situation: a near term cash return plus a mispriced stub with real assets and tax shields. The main question is execution speed, not whether the underlying barrels exist.
Source
Benevolus, 20 Nov 2025
Category (author): special_situation | Sector: Real Estate Development | Region: Coastal California
Overview
Five Point is a developer of large scale mixed use master planned communities in California. The thesis is a combination of visible free cash flow from its Great Park project and a long list of embedded catalysts.
Financial Metrics
Market cap: 447.3 million USD
P/E: 4.89
EV / EBITDA: 7.65
EV / Sales: 11.15
Dividend yield: none
Enterprise value: about 1 billion USD
Land sales at Great Park: above 11 million USD per acre
Highlights
Expected 600 to 800 million USD in free cash flow from Great Park over the next 3 to 5 years.
Refinanced 523 million USD of 10.5 percent notes into 450 million USD at 8 percent, cutting net debt to under 100 million USD.
Multiple upside levers: Hearthstone land bank JV fees, Valencia rezoning, Candlestick and SF Shipyard redevelopment, and a large Tetra Tech lawsuit.
Tetra Tech claim of 3 to 4 billion USD, with trial scheduled for December 2025.
Risks
California politics, permitting and litigation can delay or dilute project economics.
Interest rate and housing cycle risk for all developments.
Lawsuit proceeds, if any, are uncertain and binary.
Conclusion
FPH is a levered bet on California land value, legal optionality and eventual rate relief. The downside is cushioned by Great Park cash flows, but investors need patience and a strong stomach for legal and political noise.
Source
repetek827, 18 Sep 2025
Core Compounders / Not Categorized
Category (author): N/A | Sector: Construction and Engineering | Style: infrastructure compounder
Overview
Eiffage is a French construction and concessions group that focuses on long life infrastructure rather than short cycle office projects. The author presents it as a pragmatic compounder with strong order visibility and disciplined capital allocation.
Financial Metrics
Market cap: 10.7 billion EUR
P/E: 10.87
EV / EBITDA: 5.87
EV / Sales: 0.93
Dividend yield: 4.24 percent
H1 2025 revenue: 11.93 billion EUR, up 7.5 percent
Operating margin: 8.4 percent
Order book: 29.5 billion EUR, nearly two years of revenue
Highlights
Focus on toll roads, grids and infrastructure with long duration cash flows.
Five targeted acquisitions in 2025 in energy systems and offshore infrastructure, reinforcing existing strengths.
Net debt reduced by about 700 million EUR to 9.9 billion, with 4.5 billion EUR cash on hand.
Capacity to pursue opportunistic deals without overstretching the balance sheet.
Risks
Exposure to European construction cycles and public spending.
Political and regulatory risk around concessions and tariffs.
Large order book must be executed without cost overruns.
Conclusion
Eiffage is the sort of boring, backlog rich operator that can quietly grind out mid single digit growth plus dividends. The main question is simply whether you are comfortable owning French infrastructure risk at a modest multiple.
Source
French Focus Investing, 19 Nov 2025
Category (author): N/A | Sector: Construction Materials / Specialty Minerals
Overview
Imerys is a diversified industrial minerals company supplying calcium carbonate, ceramics, refractories and filtration products into critical value chains like steel, semiconductors and pharma. The thesis is that its inputs are non discretionary for customers.
Financial Metrics
Market cap: 1.9 billion EUR
EV / EBITDA: 6.15
EV / Sales: 0.99
Dividend yield: 6.35 percent
Revenue: about 3.8 billion EUR
Annual free cash flow: around 155 to 160 million EUR
Highlights
Four focused business units spanning energy solutions, filtration, ceramics and high resistance minerals.
Products are often mission critical, with low substitution risk in steel making, chips and pharma.
Steady free cash flow generation and conservative leverage profile.
Optionality from bolt on acquisitions or capacity expansions.
Risks
Volume sensitivity to global industrial production.
Energy and raw material cost inflation can pressure margins.
ESG and permitting risks around mining assets.
Conclusion
Imerys is a defensive industrial building block with a high starting yield and modest growth. For investors who like “picks and shovels” in essential materials, this is a straightforward, cash generative name.
Source
French Focus Investing, 19 Nov 2025
End Note:
This issue is a map, not a mandate. Use it to build your own watchlist and to track how different theses behave through a full cycle. The edge here is in patience, documentation and sizing, not in guessing the next quarter.
Disclaimer:
All content in Deep Value Signals is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. The information provided reflects the opinions of the original authors and sources cited and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers should conduct their own due diligence or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The publisher of Deep Value Signals does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information presented and is not responsible for any investment outcomes resulting from the use of this content. Past performance is not indicative of future results.