Signals #5 — Software, Sports Rights & Special Dividends

1. Aeon Credit Service (Asia) [900.HK]

Overview:
Aeon Credit is a consumer finance company in Hong Kong offering credit cards, installment loans, and insurance. It benefits from long-term backing by Japan’s Aeon Financial and operates in a concentrated market with high spreads.

Financial Metrics (as of June 2025):

• P/E: 5.6x

• P/B: 0.84x

• ROE: 15%+

• Dividend Yield: 8.2%

• Net Interest Margin: ~14%

• CET1 Ratio: 22.2%

Highlights:

• Dominant non-bank consumer lender in HK

• Steady earnings and payout record despite macro headwinds

• Backed by conservative Japanese parent

Risks:

• Credit risk exposure during economic slowdown

• Regulatory tightening in HK financial markets

Conclusion:
Cheap, stable, and well-capitalized with a history of solid capital returns. Offers an attractive yield and upside if investor sentiment turns toward overlooked financials.

Sources:
HKEX filings
Aeon Credit Investor Relations

2. Novo Nordisk [NOVO-B.CO]

Overview:
Novo Nordisk is a Danish pharmaceutical giant known for its diabetes and weight-loss drugs. It dominates the GLP-1 market alongside Eli Lilly and is riding a global tailwind in obesity care.

Financial Metrics (as of June 2025):

• Market Cap: ~$580B

• EV/EBIT: ~24x

• ROIC: 61%

• Revenue Growth: 31% YoY

• Net Margin: 37%

Highlights:

• Ozempic and Wegovy driving massive growth

• Pricing power and global distribution scale

• Reinvesting in AI + cell therapy for next-gen pipeline

Risks:

• Patent cliffs in 2027–2030

• Political/regulatory pushback on drug pricing

Conclusion:
Still trading at a premium, but execution is flawless and pipeline optionality is underappreciated. Compounding giant with structural tailwinds.

Sources:
Investor Presentation
Annual Report 2024

3. Willis Lease Finance Corp [WLFC]

Overview:
WLFC is a niche aircraft engine leasing company specializing in short- to mid-life engines. It generates high returns through engine markups, lease income, and bespoke financing models like JOLCOs.

Financial Metrics (as of June 2025):

• P/E: ~5.5x

• EV/EBIT: ~7.2x

• Market Cap: $330M

• Book Value: $62/share (stock at $43)

• ROE: 19.8%

Highlights:

• Hidden asset value in engine fleet

• JOLCO model reduces capital intensity

• Founder-led with insider ownership >35%

Risks:

• Cyclical exposure to airline defaults

• Illiquid stock with limited analyst coverage

Conclusion:
A mispriced leasing compounder flying under the radar. Catalysts include monetizing JOLCO portfolio and further debt paydown.

Sources:
10-K Filing
Company Investor Deck

4. Hotel101 / JVSPAC Acquisition Corp [JVSA]

Overview:
Hotel101 is merging with JVSPAC to go public. The company offers standardized hotel rooms globally, optimizing for operational efficiency through a recurring revenue SaaS-like model.

Financial Metrics (post-merger est.):

• EV/EBITDA (2025E): ~7x

• Occupancy: 84%

• EBITDA Margins: ~45%

• Revenue CAGR: 35% (2023–2025E)

Highlights:

• First “hotel chain as a product” from SE Asia

• High-margin, tech-driven expansion strategy

• Asset-light franchising model in place

Risks:

• Execution risk in new international markets

• Market unfamiliarity with the story post-SPAC

Conclusion:
Combines hotel REIT fundamentals with SaaS operational discipline. Watch closely as listing finalizes — could rerate quickly on awareness.

Sources:
JVSPAC Investor Presentation
SPAC Filing

5. Rogers Communications [RCI.B.TO]

Overview:
Rogers is Canada’s largest wireless provider and owns 75% of MLSE (Maple Leafs, Raptors, Blue Jays). Trading near multi-year lows despite strong cash flow, with a major catalyst via potential MLSE monetization.

Financial Metrics (as of June 2025):

• EV/EBITDA: 6.8x (lowest since COVID)

• Dividend Yield: 4.3%

• P/B: 1.0x

• Debt/EBITDA: declining post-Blackstone deal

• MLSE stake est. value: $15B

Highlights:

• High-quality defensive asset trading at distressed multiples

• Upcoming IPO or sale of MLSE stake could unlock major value

• Churn stabilizing, ARPU rising again post-price war

Risks:

• High capex in recent years

• Telecom sector deeply out of favor

Conclusion:
One of the most asymmetric setups in Canadian large caps. Market ignoring hidden assets and positive FCF inflection point.

Sources:
Nugget Capital Partners Writeup
Rogers Q1 2025 Transcript

6. GitLab Inc. [GTLB]

Overview:
GitLab is a DevSecOps platform competing with GitHub. Though it sold off post-earnings, it trades at 6x sales while growing revenue >25% and generating positive FCF.

Financial Metrics (as of June 2025):

• EV/Sales: ~6x

• Revenue Growth: 27% YoY

• FCF Margin: ~20%

• NRR: flat sequentially

• Cash: $1B+

Highlights:

• GenAI code IDEs (Cursor, Windsurf) driving more usage

• Duo Workflow (agentic AI) launches later this year

• Buyout rumors and product event in 2 weeks add optionality

Risks:

• Slowing net customer adds

• Earnings “beat” was narrow; sell-side skittish

Conclusion:
Terminal bear case priced in. With optionality from AI, new product cycles, and M&A chatter, this looks like a rent-to-own opportunity with 50–100% upside.

Sources:
The Razor’s Edge Writeup
GitLab Q1 2025 Earnings Call

7. Hooker Furnishings [HOFT]

Overview:
Hooker is a 101-year-old U.S. furniture manufacturer with brands spanning residential, hospitality, and contract markets. It operates through a vertically integrated model with production in the U.S. and Vietnam.

Financial Metrics (as of June 2025):

• P/Tangible Book: 0.74x

• Dividend Yield: 5.7%

• Net Cash: Yes

• Market Cap: ~$200M

• 3-Year Avg ROE: 10.2%

Highlights:

• Consistent dividend history; recently declared $0.23/qtr

• Turnaround after pandemic supply shocks

• Trades below liquidation value

Risks:

• Housing market sensitivity

• Slow-moving inventory cycles

Conclusion:
A tangible value stock with solid brand equity and 100+ years of staying power. Perfect for deep value purists.

Sources:
SEC 8-K Dividend Filing
Company Website

8. Computacenter [CCC.L]

Overview:
Computacenter is a UK-based IT infrastructure services provider operating across Europe and the U.S. The business is asset-light with a strong record of FCF and dividend growth.

Financial Metrics (as of June 2025):

• P/E: 10x

• EV/EBIT: ~6.5x

• Dividend Yield: 4.5%

• Net Cash: £250M+

• ROIC: 18%+

Highlights:

• 19 straight years of dividend increases

• Long-term corporate contracts provide revenue visibility

• Expansion into U.S. market driving growth

Risks:

• Currency exposure

• Reliance on enterprise IT budgets

Conclusion:
A reliable compounder in the tech infrastructure space, mispriced due to low excitement. Quietly building value every year.

Sources:
Annual Report
Company Filings – LSE

9. Paxman AB [PXMBF]

Overview:
Paxman is a Swedish medtech company specializing in scalp cooling systems that prevent hair loss during chemotherapy. It’s gaining traction globally with regulatory approvals and reimbursement wins.

Financial Metrics (as of June 2025):

• Market Cap: ~$30M USD

• Revenue CAGR: 35%

• Gross Margin: ~73%

• EV/Revenue: ~3.5x

• Cash Burn: Minimal; breakeven approaching

Highlights:

• FDA-cleared and CE-marked products

• Patents protect niche moat

• Market expansion in Japan and U.S. accelerating

Risks:

• Small size, illiquid

• Reimbursement access still variable by country

Conclusion:
Mission-driven microcap with real IP, proven product-market fit, and solid growth runway. A speculative but promising medtech name.

Sources:
Paxman Investor Page
Company Reports

10. River Tech plc [RIVER:NO]

Overview:
River Tech transitioned from an iGaming operator to a SaaS model in 2020. Its core customer, Tech4s, pays a recurring license and support fee. Shares are down >60% from highs despite a renewed contract and massive dividend payout.

Financial Metrics (as of June 2025):

• P/E: ~4x

• P/FCF: 2.5x

• Dividend Yield: 28% (2024 payout)

• Market Cap: €31M

• Cash: €6M (no debt)

Highlights:

• 99% gross margin SaaS model

• New 3-year contract covers market cap in FCF

• Exploring entry into RegTech via M&A

Risks:

• 100% of revenue from one client

• Illiquid Nordic listing

Conclusion:
Deep value asymmetry with downside support via recurring cash flows and upside optionality from industry expansion. Tiny, ignored, and dirt cheap.

Sources:
Elias Investing Journal Writeup
River Tech Investor Filings

11. B&M European Value Retail (BME.L)

Overview:
UK-based discount retail chain with a focus on non-perishable goods, home essentials, and value-oriented general merchandise.

Financial Metrics (as of June 2025):

• Market Cap: £2.7B

• P/E: 8x

• P/FCF: 5x

• Dividend Yield: 6.2%

• Operating Margin: >10%

Highlights:

• Highly cash-generative with strong dividend history

• Sharp post-earnings selloff created deep value entry point

• Moat in price-sensitive retail backed by scale advantages

Risks:

• Slowing like-for-like sales in core UK market

• Cyclical exposure to discretionary consumer spending

Conclusion:
Despite short-term pessimism, B&M remains a high-margin, high-yield defensive retailer at a bargain valuation.

Source:

• Moat Mind Substack

12. Clínica Baviera (CBAV.SM)

Overview:
Clínica Baviera is a leading European ophthalmology clinic network specializing in corrective eye surgeries (refractive, cataract, and presbyopia) across Spain, Germany, and Italy.

Financial Metrics (as of June 2025):

• Market Cap: €367M

• Enterprise Value: €331M

• P/E: 13x

• EV/EBIT: 9x

• Dividend Yield: 5.7%

• ROIC: ~35%

Highlights:

• 140+ clinics in 4 countries, dominant market position in Spain

• High-margin business with strong cash conversion and zero debt

• Return-focused capital allocation — special dividends paid historically

• Consistent organic and acquisition-driven growth

Risks:

• Sensitive to consumer discretionary trends and economic downturns

• Limited investor awareness due to small cap and low liquidity

Conclusion:
A niche European medical services company with a wide moat in vision correction, strong returns on capital, and an attractive yield at a moderate valuation.

Sources:

• PolymathInvestor on Substack

• Digrin Dividend Dashboard

13. 4783 JP – NCD Co. Ltd.

Theme: Japanese systems integrator with a stealth, high-margin bike-parking unit
Latest Metrics:

• Market Cap: ¥23.18 B (~US $160 M)

• P/E: ~10.6–11×; EV/EBIT: ~8×

• EV/Sales: ~0.67×; P/B: ~3×; P/S: ~0.83×

• Net Debt: ¥30 B vs. cash ¥6 B (~¥24 B net)

• ROE: ~26.7% (TTM); 5‑yr avg ROE: ~20%

• ROIC/ROI: ~19.8% (TTM)

• SI margins: ~6% (peer ~15%)

• Free Cash Flow Yield: ~16%

• Dividend Yield: ~2.45%; EPS: ¥232 TTM

Thesis

• Core SI business offers stable, highly recurring revenues with margin improvement potential.

• Bike-parking segment, a hidden gem operating self-managed lots near stations, boasts high-margin recurring earnings and strong contract renewal rates.

• Underleveraged and trading at a significant discount to historical averages and peers—potential catalysts include large share buybacks or a special dividend.

Risks

• Uncertain CEO succession as current CEO approaches retirement.

• Idle cash (~¥6 B) eroding value in a low interest-rate environment.

• SI business could face cyclical slowdown affecting margins.

• No formal commitment to buybacks or special dividends may delay rerating.

Source

edasc50, Value Investors Club (Apr 24, 2025) , supplementary data from market sources

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