Signals #8 — Cashflow, Collateral & Cheap Yield

Ten companies turning hard assets and steady cash conversion into shareholder value. This batch blends European compounders, dividend-heavy cyclicals, and under-the-radar Asian industrials — all priced for pessimism, not performance.

October 20, 2025

Overview:
Publicis has transitioned from a traditional agency to a data-driven platform. Its Epsilon and Sapient divisions lead in AI-enabled personalization as clients shift budgets to measurable performance. Q3 organic growth hit 5.7%, prompting raised guidance, with North America as the growth engine.

Financial Metrics (Oct 2025):
• Market Cap: EUR 20.9B • EV/EBITDA: 7.69 • P/E: 12.37 • EV/Sales: 1.44 • Dividend: 4.31%

Highlights:
• Strong AI and data capabilities driving growth.
• Solid 7% organic growth in North America; APAC steady.
• High cash generation and margin discipline.

Risks:
• Exposure to advertising cycles.
• Execution risk in scaling AI integration globally.

Conclusion:
Publicis’s transformation is working. It offers steady growth with AI leverage and an attractive yield.

Sources: Lux Opes Research, “Publicis Groupe: Still setting the pace as AI turbocharges its edge,” pitch date 2025-10-14.

Overview:
A vertically integrated TiO₂ producer navigating a cyclical downturn. Recent financing extended liquidity while positioning for recovery in pigment demand.

Financial Metrics (Oct 2025):
• Market Cap: $575.4M • EV/EBITDA: 7.74 • P/E: -2.29 • EV/Sales: 1.24 • Dividend: 5.51%

Highlights:
• Issued $400M in 9.125% senior secured notes due 2030.
• Notes guaranteed by core subsidiaries; optional redemption from 2027.
• Proceeds strengthen balance sheet and refinancing flexibility.

Risks:
• TiO₂ price volatility and end-market softness.
• High leverage magnifies downturn exposure.

Conclusion:
A deep-value cyclical play. Recovery in pricing could sharply improve equity returns.

Sources: Dismissed & Asset Backed, “The Deep Value Week – 2025/39: Tronox Holdings plc,” pitch date 2025-10-13.

Overview:
Luxembourg holding company with palm-oil and rubber operations in Indonesia and Cambodia. Combines strong returns with a hefty dividend.

Financial Metrics (Oct 2025):
• Market Cap: EUR 509.5M • EV/EBITDA: 4.18 • P/E: 7.85 • EV/Sales: 2.17 • Dividend: 15.38%

Highlights:
• 40.7% ROIC and ~5.4× EV/EBIT.
• 57% owned by Socfin; 22% by Bolloré.
• Attractive yield and solid capital discipline.

Risks:
• Commodity-price swings.
• Governance and minority exposure under majority control.

Conclusion:
High-yield cash generator with strong underlying economics. Attractive if commodity prices stay supportive.

Sources: Contrarian Cashflows, “Monday Delight: 13/10/25 — Socfinasia S.A.,” pitch date 2025-10-13.

Overview:
Dry-bulk operator built for liquidation value realization. Recent vessel sales above book value indicate likely wind-down within a year.

Financial Metrics (Oct 2025):
• Market Cap: NOK 310.0M • EV/EBITDA: 11.00 • P/E: 13.71 • EV/Sales: 7.06 • Dividend: 11.95%

Highlights:
• Three of six ships sold for USD 209M (USD 89M above book).
• Estimated NAV around 128 NOK per share.
• High distribution potential upon final sales.

Risks:
• Shipping-rate volatility.
• Timing and proceeds from remaining vessel disposals.

Conclusion:
Near-term liquidation potential offers clear catalysts and double-digit yield.

Sources: Liquidation Stocks, “Liquidations Watchlist — 2020 Bulkers Ltd.,” pitch date 2025-10-13.

Overview:
Singapore contractor trading near net cash. Rebuilding tender pipeline with government projects offers recovery optionality.

Financial Metrics (Oct 2025):
• Market Cap: HKD 68.0M • EV/EBITDA: –1.53 • P/E: 5.32 • EV/Sales: –0.10 • Dividend: N/A

Highlights:
• Cash position roughly equals market cap.
• Peers trade at premiums despite weaker balance sheets.
• Tender book improving through public procurement.

Risks:
• Project-timing and cost-inflation risk.
• Small-cap liquidity and contract concentration.

Conclusion:
A net-cash microcap with turnaround leverage. Upside if new tenders convert.

Sources: Collyer Bridge, “Singapore roundup — Kwan Yong Holdings,” pitch date 2025-10-06.

Apartment Investment & Management Co. (AIV)

Overview:
U.S. multifamily REIT pursuing asset sales and potential liquidation, returning cash from property divestitures.

Financial Metrics (Oct 2025):
• Market Cap: $1.1B • EV/EBITDA: 28.65 • P/E: –15.84 • EV/Sales: 11.66 • Dividend: N/A

Highlights:
• Boston sale dividend imminent.
• Brickell and remaining asset sales could release $6–7 per share.
• Operating income near $90 M supports further payouts.

Risks:
• Execution timing and sale pricing.
• Potential tax friction in liquidations.

Conclusion:
A value-unlock story. Near-term distributions offer compelling cash recovery potential.

Sources: Kingdom Capital Advisors, “New Position: Apartment Investment and Management Company,” pitch date 2025-10-09.

Overview:
Norwegian EPC major supporting both oil & gas and energy-transition projects. Combining strong order book with double-digit returns.

Financial Metrics (Oct 2025):
• Market Cap: NOK 13.3B • EV/EBITDA: 2.87 • P/E: 6.00 • EV/Sales: 0.22 • Dividend: 11.96%

Highlights:
• 20.2% ROIC, ~5.1× EV/EBIT.
• Diversified EPC + lifecycle services.
• Focus on carbon capture, hydrogen, and offshore wind.

Risks:
• Energy capex cycles.
• Execution risk on large projects.

Conclusion:
One of the cheapest quality operators in global EPC. Solid returns plus energy-transition upside.

Sources: Contrarian Cashflows, “Monday Delight: 13/10/25 — Aker Solutions ASA,” pitch date 2025-10-13.

Overview:
Kazakhstan gold producer with massive reserves and a cheap valuation per ounce. Ramping output and expanding drilling at Teren Sai.

Financial Metrics (Oct 2025):
• Market Cap: GBP 341.0M • EV/EBITDA: 4.87 • P/E: 7.55 • EV/Sales: 2.93 • Dividend: N/A

Highlights:
• ~$28.82 per GEO vs peer average >$200.
• 25.08 Koz produced; tracking to 50 Koz.
• 10,000 m drill program accelerating Teren Sai.

Risks:
• Geopolitical and operational uncertainty.
• Cost inflation at new projects.

Conclusion:
Deeply discounted reserves and long runway for expansion. Significant optionality if production scales.

Sources: The Oak Bloke, “2026 from the Oak Bloke — AltynGold plc,” pitch date 2025-10-13.

Overview:
Microfinance lender operating across Asia and Africa with rapidly improving profitability and strong ROTE.

Financial Metrics (Oct 2025):
• Market Cap: GBP 253.8M • P/E: 6.04 • Dividend: 3.78%

Highlights:
• 1H25 profits up 99%.
• ROTE 46.1%.
• Share pullback offers re-entry after August rally.

Risks:
• Credit loss risk in emerging markets.
• FX and regulatory uncertainty.

Conclusion:
High-return compounder at low valuation. Attractive if loan quality remains stable.

Sources: The Oak Bloke, “2026 from the Oak Bloke — ASA International Group PLC,” pitch date 2025-10-13.

Overview:
Supplier of diesel and gas genset solutions with OEM partnerships and capacity expansion underway in Malaysia.

Financial Metrics (Oct 2025):
• Market Cap: SGD 179.8M • EV/EBITDA: 4.96 • P/E: 7.04 • EV/Sales: 1.07 • Dividend: 4.88%

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Highlights:
• Mitsubishi expanding Johor capacity to 1,000 units.
• New genset model priced ~USD 900K.
• Kawasaki partnership for USD 3.5M gas gensets.
• Mitsubishi acquired 15% stake in Mechpower.

Risks:
• Order timing and execution uncertainty.
• Cyclical industrial demand.

Conclusion:
Healthy growth pipeline with OEM backing. Valuation remains attractive as expansion converts to sales.

Sources: Collyer Bridge, “Singapore roundup — XMH Holdings,” pitch date 2025-10-13.

All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security.

Disclaimer:
All content in Deep Value Signals is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. The information provided reflects the opinions of the original authors and sources cited and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers should conduct their own due diligence or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The publisher of Deep Value Signals does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information presented and is not responsible for any investment outcomes resulting from the use of this content. Past performance is not indicative of future results.